Overrun Oracle

Overview

A risk-banding tool that estimates potential labor overrun exposure using predicted productivity, peer-group benchmarks, and percentile-based loss ranges.

Goals

• Quantify potential labor overrun exposure, not just a point estimate.
• Anchor estimates against peer-group benchmarks for context.
• Express exposure as interpretable percentile-based loss ranges.

Approach

• Feed predicted productivity into a simulation of overrun outcomes.
• Benchmark each project against comparable peer groups.
• Band the results into percentile ranges for decision-making.

Status

🚧 In progress. A full write-up — methodology, results, and code — is coming soon.